2004ApJ...607..913C

The light curves of the pre-main-sequence star KH 15D from the years 1913-2003 can be understood if the star is a member of an eccentric binary that is encircled by a vertically thin, inclined ring of dusty gas. Eclipses occur whenever the reflex motion of a star carries it behind the circumbinary ring; the eclipses occur with a period equal to the binary orbital period of 48.4 days. Features of the light curve, including the amplitude of central reversals during mid-eclipse, the phase of the eclipse with respect to the binary orbit phase, the level of brightness out of eclipse, the depth of the eclipse, and the eclipse duty cycle, are all modulated on the timescale of nodal regression of the obscuring ring, in accord with the historical data. The ring has a mean radius near 3 AU and a radial width that is likely less than this value. While the inner boundary could be shepherded by the central binary, the outer boundary may require an exterior planet to confine it against viscous spreading. The ring must be vertically warped to maintain a nonzero inclination. Thermal pressure gradients and/or ring self-gravity can readily enforce rigid precession. In coming years, as the node of the ring regresses out of our line of sight toward the binary, the light curve from the system should cycle approximately back through its previous behavior. Near-term observations should seek to detect a mid-infrared excess from this system; we estimate the flux densities from the ring to be 3 mJy at wavelengths of 10-100 µm.