2012ApJ...757..156G

We predict the space density of molecular gas reservoirs in the universe and place a lower limit on the number counts of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen cyanide (HCN) molecular, and [C II] atomic emission lines in blind redshift surveys in the submillimeter-centimeter spectral regime. Our model uses (1) recently available HCN spectral line energy distributions (SLEDs) of local luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs, L_IR> 10¹¹ L_☉), (2) a value for ε_{sstarf}= SFR/M_dense(H₂) provided by new developments in the study of star formation feedback on the interstellar medium, and (3) a model for the evolution of the infrared luminosity density. Minimal "emergent" CO SLEDs from the dense gas reservoirs expected in all star-forming systems in the universe are then computed from the HCN SLEDs since warm, HCN-bright gas will necessarily be CO-bright, with the dense star-forming gas phase setting an obvious minimum to the total molecular gas mass of any star-forming galaxy. We include [C II] as the most important of the far-infrared cooling lines. Optimal blind surveys with the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) could potentially detect very distant (z ∼ 10-12) [C II] emitters in the ≥ ULIRG galaxy class at a rate of ∼0.1-1/hr (although this prediction is strongly dependent on the star formation and enrichment history at this early epoch), whereas the (high-frequency) Square Kilometer Array will be capable of blindly detecting z > 3 low-J CO emitters at a rate of ∼40-70/hr. The [C II] line holds special promise for detecting metal-poor systems with extensive reservoirs of CO-dark molecular gas where detection rates with ALMA can reach up to 2-7/hr in Bands 4-6.