2012ApJ...759..132A

Using three-dimensional, moving-mesh simulations, we investigate the future evolution of the recently discovered gas cloud G2 traveling through the galactic center. We consider the case of a spherical cloud initially in pressure equilibrium with the background. Our suite of simulations explores the following parameters: the equation of state, radial profiles of the background gas, and start times for the evolution. Our primary focus is on how the fate of this cloud will affect the future activity of Sgr A*. From our simulations we expect an average feeding rate in the range of (5-19)x10^–8 M_☉/yr beginning in 2013 and lasting for at least 7 years (our simulations stop in year 2020). The accretion varies by less than a factor of three on timescales ≤ 1 month, and shows no more than a factor of 10 difference between the maximum and minimum observed rates within any given model. These rates are comparable to the current estimated accretion rate in the immediate vicinity of Sgr A*, although they represent only a small ( ≲ 5%) increase over the current expected feeding rate at the effective inner boundary of our simulations (r = 750, R_S~ 10¹⁵ cm), where R_S is the Schwarzschild radius of the black hole. Therefore, the breakup of cloud G2 may have only a minimal effect on the brightness and variability of Sgr A* over the next decade. This is because current models of the galactic center predict that most of the gas will be caught up in outflows. However, if the accreted G2 material can remain cold, it may not mix well with the hot, diffuse background gas, and instead accrete efficiently onto Sgr A*. Further observations of G2 will give us an unprecedented opportunity to test this idea. The breakup of the cloud itself may also be observable. By tracking the amount of cloud energy that is dissipated during our simulations, we are able to get a rough estimate of the luminosity associated with its tidal disruption; we find values of a few 10³⁶ erg/s.