2015ApJ...806..224M

The impending era of wide-field radio surveys has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of astrophysical transients. Here we evaluate the prospects of a wide range of planned and hypothetical radio surveys using the properties and volumetric rates of known and hypothetical classes of extragalactic synchrotron radio transients (e.g., on-axis and off-axis gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), supernovae, tidal disruption events, compact object mergers). Utilizing these sources and physically motivated considerations we assess the allowed phase space of radio luminosity and peak timescale for extragalactic transients. We also include for the first time effects such as redshift evolution of the rates, K-corrections, and non-Euclidean luminosity distance, which affect the detection rates of the most sensitive surveys. The number of detected events is calculated by means of a Monte Carlo method, using the various survey properties (depth, cadence, area) and realistic detection criteria that include a cut on the minimum variability of the transients during the survey and an assessment of host galaxy contamination. We find that near-term GHz frequency surveys (ASKAP/VAST, Very Large Array Sky Survey) will detect few events: ≲ 30-50 on- and off-axis long GRBs (LGRBs) and off-axis tidal disruption events, and ∼ 50-100 neutron star binary mergers if ∼ 0.5% of the mergers result in a stable millisecond magnetar. Low-frequency surveys (e.g., LOFAR) are unlikely to detect any transients, while a hypothetical large-scale mm survey may detect ∼40 on-axis LGRBs. On the other hand, we find that SKA1 surveys at ∼0.1 -1 GHz have the potential to uncover thousands of transients, mainly on-axis and off-axis LGRBs, on-axis short GRBs, off-axis TDEs, and neutron star binary mergers with magnetar remnants.