2017MNRAS.465.4886C

The mass of the Local Group (LG) is a crucial parameter for galaxy formation theories. However, its observational determination is challenging - its mass budget is dominated by dark matter that cannot be directly observed. To meet this end, the posterior distributions of the LG and its massive constituents have been constructed by means of constrained and random cosmological simulations. Two priors are assumed - the Λ cold dark matter model that is used to set up the simulations, and an LG model that encodes the observational knowledge of the LG and is used to select LG-like objects from the simulations. The constrained simulations are designed to reproduce the local cosmography as it is imprinted on to the Cosmicflows-2 data base of velocities. Several prescriptions are used to define the LG model, focusing in particular on different recent estimates of the tangential velocity of M31. It is found that (a) different v_tan choices affect the peak mass values up to a factor of 2, and change mass ratios of M_M31 to M_MW by up to 20 per cent; (b) constrained simulations yield more sharply peaked posterior distributions compared with the random ones; (c) LG mass estimates are found to be smaller than those found using the timing argument; (d) preferred Milky Way masses lie in the range of (0.6-0.8) x 10¹² M_☉; whereas (e) M_M31 is found to vary between (1.0-2.0) x 10¹² M_☉, with a strong dependence on the v_tan values used.