2017MNRAS.468.1671L

The dwarf galaxies around the Milky Way are distributed in a so-called vast polar structure (VPOS) that may be in conflict with Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) simulations. Here, we seek to determine if the VPOS poses a serious challenge to the ΛCDM paradigm on galactic scales. Specifically, we investigate if the VPOS remains coherent as a function of time. Using the measured Hubble Space Telescope (HST) proper motions and associated uncertainties, we integrate the orbits of the classical Milky Way satellites backwards in time and find that the structure disperses well before a dynamical time. We also examine, in particular, Leo I and Leo II using their most recent proper motion data, both of which have extreme kinematic properties, but these satellites do not appear to drive the polar fit that is seen at the present day. We have studied the effect of the uncertainties on the HST proper motions on the coherence of the VPOS as a function of time. We find that 8 of the 11 classical dwarfs have reliable proper motions; for these eight, the VPOS also loses significance in less than a dynamical time, indicating that the VPOS is not a dynamically stable structure. Obtaining more accurate proper motion measurements of Ursa Minor, Sculptor and Carina would bolster these conclusions.