2019MNRAS.488..633V

New instruments and telescopes, such as SPIRou, CARMENES, and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), will increase manyfold the number of known planets orbiting M dwarfs. To guide future radio observations, we estimate radio emission from known M dwarf planets using the empirical radiometric prescription derived in the Solar system, in which radio emission is powered by the wind of the host star. Using solar-like wind models, we find that the most promising exoplanets for radio detections are GJ 674 b and Proxima b, followed by YZ Cet b, GJ 1214 b, GJ 436 b. These are the systems that are the closest to us (<10 pc). However, we also show that our radio fluxes are very sensitive to the unknown properties of winds of M dwarfs. So, which types of winds would generate detectable radio emission? In a 'reverse engineering' calculation, we show that winds with mass-loss rates {dot}M ≳κ_ sw_/u sw_^3 would drive planetary radio emission detectable with present-day instruments, where u_sw is the local stellar wind velocity and κ_sw is a constant that depends on the size of the planet, distance, and orbital radius. Using observationally constrained properties of the quiescent winds of GJ 436 and Proxima Cen, we conclude that it is unlikely that GJ 436 b and Proxima b would be detectable with present-day radio instruments, unless the host stars generate episodic coronal mass ejections. GJ 674 b, GJ 876 b, and YZ Cet b could present good prospects for radio detection, provided that their host stars' winds have {dot}M u_ sw_³ ≳1.8×10^–4 M_☉ yr_^–1 ( kms^–1)³.