2020MNRAS.493.4945K

We examine the problem of estimating the mass range corresponding to the observed red supergiant (RSG) progenitors of Type IIP supernovae. Using Monte Carlo simulations designed to reproduce the properties of the observations, we find that the approach of Davies & Beasor significantly overestimates the maximum mass, yielding an upper limit of M_h/M_☉ = 20.5 ± 2.6 for an input population with M_h/M_☉ = 18. Our preferred Bayesian approach does better, with M_h/M_☉ = 18.6 ± 2.1 for the same input populations, but also tends to overestimate M_h. For the actual progenitor sample and a Salpeter initial mass function, we find M_ h_/M☉₌19.01_–2.04^+4.04 for the Eldridge & Tout mass-luminosity relation used by Smartt and Davies & Beasor, and M_ h_/M☉₌21.28_–2.28^+4.52 for the Sukhbold, Woosley & Heger mass-luminosity relation. Based on the Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate that these are overestimated by (3.3±0.8) M_☉. The red supergiant problem remains.