2022ApJ...941..169D

The detection of the gravitational wave (GW) counterpart GRB 170817A, underluminous compared to the cosmological gamma-ray burst (GRB) population by a factor of 10,000, motivates significant effort in detecting and localizing a dim, nearby, and slightly off-axis population of short GRBs. Swift's Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is one of the most sensitive GRB detectors in operation, and the only one that regularly localizes GRBs to arcminute precision, critical to rapid follow-up studies. However, the utility of BAT in targeted subthreshold searches had been historically curtailed by the unavailability of the necessary raw data for analysis. The new availability of time-tagged event data from the GUANO system motivates a renewed focus on developing sensitive targeted search analysis techniques to maximally exploit these data. While computationally cheap, we show that the typical coded-mask deconvolution imaging is limited in its sensitivity due to several factors. We formalize a maximum likelihood framework for the analysis of BAT data wherein signals are forward modeled through the full instrument response, and-coupled with the development of new response models-demonstrate its superior sensitivity to typical imaging via archival comparisons, injection campaigns, and a large number of low-latency GRB discoveries and confirmed arcminute localizations to date. We also demonstrate independent localization of some out-of-field-of-view GRBs for the first time. NITRATES's increased sensitivity boosts the discovery rate of GRB 170817A-like events in BAT by a factor of at least 3-4×, along with enabling joint analyses and searches with other GRB, GW, neutrino, and FRB instruments. We provide public access to the response functions and search pipeline code.