2022MNRAS.513.2491T

We study the influence of a cosmological population of dense gas clouds on distant sources, with an emphasis on quasar optical variability. In addition to gravitational lensing, such clouds affect flux measurements via refraction in the neutral gas and via dust extinction, leading to a variety of possible light curves even in the low optical depth limit. We classify and illustrate the types of light curves that can arise. For sources as large as quasars, we show that gravitational lensing and extinction are the dominant effects, with gas refraction playing only a minor role. We find that clouds with mass $\sim 10^{-4.5\pm 0.5}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ can reproduce the observed distribution of quasar variation amplitudes, but only if such clouds make up a large fraction of the closure density. In that case, there may also be substantial extinction of distant optical sources, which can, in principle, be constrained by data on 'standard candles' such as type Ia supernovae. Unfortunately, that extinction is essentially grey, even when the material opacity is strongly wavelength dependent, making it difficult to distinguish from the influence of the background geometry. We propose a novel statistical test of the origin of quasar variability, based on the angular structure of the variation timescale for a large number of quasars distributed all over the sky. If quasar variability is primarily due to nanolensing, then angular structure is expected to include a quadrupole term of amplitude $\sim 5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, which ought to be measurable with future data from the Gaia mission.