2023MNRAS.523.5985P

The aim of cosmological simulations is to reproduce the properties of the observed Universe, serving as tools to test structure and galaxy formation models. Constrained simulations of our local cosmological region up to a few hundred $h^{-1}\, \mbox{Mpc}$ , the Local Universe, are designed to reproduce the actual cosmic web of structures as observed. A question that often arises is how to judge the quality of constrained simulations against the observations of the Local Universe. Here we introduce the Local Universe model (LUM), a new methodology, whereby many constrained simulations can be judged and the 'best' initial conditions can be identified. By characterizing the Local Universe as a set of rich clusters, the model identifies haloes that serve as simulated counterparts to the observed clusters. Their merit is determined against a null hypothesis, the probability that such a counterpart could be identified in a random, unconstrained simulation. This model is applied to 100 constrained simulations using the Cosmicflows-3 data. Cluster counterparts are found for all constrained simulations, their distribution of separation from the true observed cluster position and their mass distribution are investigated. Lastly, the 'best' constrained simulation is selected using the LUM and discussed in more detail.