2024MNRAS.529.1258P

The population of radio-loud stars has to date been studied primarily through either targeted observations of a small number of highly active stars or wide-field, single-epoch surveys that cannot easily distinguish stellar emission from background extragalactic sources. As a result it has been difficult to constrain population statistics such as the surface density and fraction of the population producing radio emission in a particular variable or spectral class. In this paper, we present a sample of 36 radio stars detected in a circular polarization search of the multi-epoch Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) pilot survey with ASKAP at 887.5 MHz. Through repeat sampling of the VAST pilot survey footprint we find an upper limit to the duty cycle of M-dwarf radio bursts of $8.5 \,\rm {per\,cent}$, and that at least 10 ± 3 $\rm {per\,cent}$ of the population should produce radio bursts more luminous than $10^{15} \,\rm {erg}\mathrm{s}^{-1} \,\mathrm{Hz}^{-1}$. We infer a lower limit on the long-term surface density of such bursts in a shallow $1.25 \,\mathrm{m}\rm {Jy}\rm\ {PSF}^{-1}$ sensitivity survey of ${9}^{\, +{11}}_{-{7}}\times 10^{-3}$ $\,\deg ^{-2}$ and an instantaneous radio star surface density of 1.7 ± 0.2 × 10^–3 $\,\deg ^{-2}$ on 12 min time-scales. Based on these rates we anticipate ∼200 ± 50 new radio star detections per year over the full VAST survey and ${41\, 000}^{\, +{10\, 000}}_{-{9\, 000}}$ in next-generation all-sky surveys with the Square Kilometre Array.