2026ApJ..1000..153M

Direct-imaging surveys have looked for accreting planets through their accretion tracers such as Hα but have been less fruitful than expected. However, up to now, hydrogen-line emission at accreting planets has been estimated primarily with extrapolations of stellar-scaling relationships or with theoretical spherically symmetric computations. To predict the line-emission intensity during the formation phase, we follow the consequences of angular momentum conservation of the material accreting onto a gas giant in a protoplanetary disk. We focus on the limiting case that magnetospheric accretion does not occur, which yields a conservative estimate of the line emission and should correspond to certain epochs during formation. We extend but simplify an existing analytical description of the multidimensional gas flow onto an accreting gas giant, the ballistic infall model, and combine this with detailed shock emission calculations. Applying this to data from a global planet formation model, we confirm that the line-emitting accretion rate is a minuscule fraction of the gas inflow into the Hill sphere. Also, forming planets are mostly fainter than PDS 70 b and c or WISPIT 2 b, with a maximum Hα line luminosity L_line ∼ 10^–7L_⊙ roughly independent of planet mass. Most surveys have not been sensitive to such faint planets. Other hydrogen lines in the near-IR are fainter by 1-2 dex. This implies that accreting planets are fainter than from past estimates, such that the nondetections are not as constraining as thought. A deeper look closer in to the host stars could well reveal many forming super-Jupiters.